Passive’s no bubble as active retains market control | Insights

Global asset managers 2025 outlook | Insights


Key research takeaways

Passive Ownership Doesn’t Affect Performance: Contrary to concerns about inflated share prices, we found that stocks with lower passive ownership performed better long term than those favored by indexed strategies. Passive’s preferred S&P 500 stocks also had similar volatility to less-owned ones and an average valuation in line with the index at about 25x price-to-earnings.
Active Lags Even Amid Low Passive Ownership: Regardless of whether a global region has a high or low allocation to passive strategies, roughly 80% or more of active equity fund managers trail their benchmarks long term, indicating that the level of passive ownership likely isn’t driving underperformance.
`Passive’ Isn’t Always Passive: Passive fund assets exceed actively managed, but the number overstates the impact, since a significant amount of the former are in quasi-active strategies. Even some passive indexes, including the S&P 500, have active characteristics, such as an asset threshold or a selection committee.
Nvidia’s Eye Test: As a member of the S&P 500 since 2001, Nvidia’s recent ascent to one of the world’s most held stocks, while dramatically outperforming the index, shows that active stock pickers and managers are still in control of price direction.

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