Key research takeaways
Steady Growth: The move to online shopping from physical stores continues to accelerate as people spend more time on smart devices, putting digital on track to reach 34% of US retail sales in 2030 from 25% in 2023. The shift should favor companies that invest in technologies to improve digital shopping.
Leveraging AI: The embrace of new technology like generative AI by companies including Amazon and eBay is making shopping more efficient and stemming mounting costs. Conversion from shopping to purchasing online is in the low- to mid-single digits but likely to increase because of AI.
Social Capital: Influencer- and celebrity-led shopping through social commerce may drive the next leg of acceleration, with TikTok, Instagram, YouTube and others commercializing their feeds with easy, one-click purchasing.
Barriers Fall: E-commerce growth comes on the back of low barriers to entry, traditional brick-and-mortar retailers expanding online, and consumers who are more willing to try new brands and platforms. Walmart’s global digital revenue has surged nearly tenfold from a decade ago, to more than $100 billion.
A Resale Tailwind: The need to counter inflation and a desire for sustainability should push up the global secondhand apparel market at a 12% CAGR, to $350 billion by 2028, according to GlobalData. The trend gets support from resale platforms like RealReal, Depop and Poshmark, as well as re-commerce sections at big players like Amazon and Walmart.
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